| "One ounce of Chocolate costs the equivalent of one | | | | outpacing the rate of production in the coming years. |
| ounce of Gold." Well, almost. In the ancient Aztec | | | | The pace of economic growth of China is much |
| world, cacao beans were actually used as currency, | | | | faster than that of the rest of the world. The GDP |
| but what I am talking about here is a real possibility in | | | | of China will exceed that of Japan in a couple of |
| the near future. In 20 years, you may need to give | | | | years (if not this year), and China will then be the |
| your daughter a $100 bill so that she can get just a | | | | second largest economy in the world. Although |
| small bar of chocolate. If you are curious, read on. | | | | chocolate is not yet a commonly-consumed sweet |
| The consumption of cacao beans increased from 2.8 | | | | among Chinese citizens, their taste in food is rapidly |
| million tons in the year 2000 to 3.6 million tons last | | | | changing and getting close to that of the western |
| year -- an increase of about 2.2%. The production | | | | world. Because of the sheer size of the population in |
| rate is also increasing at a compatible rate of 2.1% a | | | | China, if they start consuming an extra half-pound of |
| year. Although Africa is still the main area of cacao | | | | chocolate per person, it will result in an increase of 0.3 |
| bean production, Asian countries are rapidly increasing | | | | million tons of cacao consumption! (And did you know |
| their production to fill the gap. Still, the cacao bean | | | | that Americans consume 12lbs of chocolate per |
| commodity price increased from $1,000 per ton in | | | | person per year?). It is already rumored that the |
| the year 2000 to $3,500 per ton this past year. | | | | best sushi tuna cut is found in China, NOT in Japan; |
| Although the recent sharp increase in the price of | | | | soon, the same may be true about chocolate. |
| cacao is mainly due to the current disturbances in the | | | | Fourthly, well, we all blame global warming for |
| Ivory Coast (where the major cacao export ports | | | | everything, and here we can do that, too. If global |
| are located), there are deeper problems. First of all, | | | | warming advances quickly, it will dry out the region in |
| many cacao plantations had been using semi-"slave" | | | | which the cacao trees are grown. This, in turn, will |
| and child laborers to keep the prices low, but more | | | | cause a decline in the production of cacao beans. You |
| and more people in the western world, where 80% | | | | can shift the cultivation area geographically, but it is |
| of cacao are consumed, realized what was going on | | | | costly and may not create the same quality of cacao |
| and pressured the plantation owners to "free" the | | | | beans. Although this is just speculation, the climate |
| laborers, and the laborers' wages went up | | | | change often brings plant diseases as well, and it may |
| significantly. There is also wide-spread corruption and | | | | kill a large number of cacao trees, as has happened |
| political unrest in these countries which won't go | | | | with other tropical plants in the past (in fact, it |
| away anytime soon. In the worst case scenario, the | | | | happened with cacao in the mid 18th century). |
| export from these countries may end up stopping | | | | Modern cacao growers can use pesticides and |
| completely. | | | | fungicides or similar chemicals, but you cannot do that |
| Secondly, after news of the health benefit of | | | | for organic cacao trees. |
| chocolate was published, the demand for "real" | | | | Although anything can happen to change the |
| chocolate increased significantly. By the year 2011, | | | | situation, if the cacao price keeps going up at its |
| the demand of organic cacao is expected to hit 25% | | | | current rate, in 20 years, it will be $10,000 per ton |
| of all cacao imports to the western world. Since the | | | | (and this is a conservative estimate). If the Chinese |
| production of organic cacao is far more labor | | | | people decide that they love chocolate, it could push |
| intensive and costly (probably 20 - 30% more costly | | | | up the commodity price far more; even as much as |
| per ton comparing to non-organic products), it pushes | | | | $50,000 could be possible. Now, you know why you |
| up the average cost of chocolate significantly. | | | | may end up needing to give a $100 bill to your |
| Thirdly, the demand for cacao is expected to be far | | | | daughter just to buy a bar of chocolate in 20 years! |